India Spreads Nuclear Wings

India, however, is in a league of its own. With a full suite of five missile types, Agni-3 has been designed to build a nuclear deterrent against China. For its traditional rival Pakistan, India has Agni-I (430-500 mile range) and Agni-II (1,300 mile range) missiles that are now being inducted into its armed forces. The Agni is one of five missiles that have been developed by India. The others are the short-range surface-to-surface Prithvi, the surface-to-air Trishul (Trident), the multi-purpose Akash (Sky) (pictured) and the anti-tank Nag (Cobra) missile.

by Muazzam Gill
UPI Outside View Commentator
Anaheim Hills (UPI) Calif., April 19, 2007
With India's successful test firing last week of Agni-3, its longest-range intermediate-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile, Asia's arms race has gone up another notch.

New Delhi now has the capability to deliver a 1 1/2-ton nuclear or conventional payload over much of Asia and the Middle East. Agni-3 has a reported range of 1,865 miles and could hit targets as far off as Beijing and Shanghai. The test appears to have had the tacit approval of the United States given Washington's efforts to build India as a strategic counterweight to China, along with Japan and Australia.

Asian nations are building up their military clout in response to the weapons being developed by neighboring states. Most observers focus on nuclear proliferation, with tests by India and Pakistan in 1998, and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. But it is missile proliferation that is changing the way Asian militaries assess each other and continually strive for greater missile capacity. The authoritative Jane's Defense Weekly reports that Thailand may decide to produce its own short-range missiles, with a 50-mile range.

Not to be outdone, Pakistan, with help from China and North Korea, is in the process of inducting the nuclear-capable Shaheen-II missile, first tested in March 2004, capable of striking Indian targets over a range of 1,200 miles, into its arsenal.

A Foreign Ministry source in New Delhi said India, which has signed an agreement with Pakistan on the pre-notification of ballistic missile tests, had informed Islamabad of the latest test.

India, however, is in a league of its own. With a full suite of five missile types, Agni-3 has been designed to build a nuclear deterrent against China. For its traditional rival Pakistan, India has Agni-I (430-500 mile range) and Agni-II (1,300 mile range) missiles that are now being inducted into its armed forces. The Agni is one of five missiles that have been developed by India. The others are the short-range surface-to-surface Prithvi, the surface-to-air Trishul (Trident), the multi-purpose Akash (Sky) and the anti-tank Nag (Cobra) missile.

During negotiations with the United States in 2006 on a civilian nuclear deal, India postponed testing of the Agni-3 to avoid the wrath of nuclear hawks in Congress, which was deliberating the nuclear pact that it eventually passed. According to reports last year, Washington put pressure on New Delhi to agree to a future moratorium on testing of dual-use missile technology that could be used to deliver a nuclear payload and testing another atomic bomb as a quid pro quo for the civilian nuclear deal. India rejected such a commitment and has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

However, new business interests and arrangements, coupled with India's record as a responsible democracy and China's growing global clout, have forced a change in strategic equations. It now appears likely India will be accepted as a nuclear exception among the global community, allowing it to purchase nuclear fuel and technology from the international market. Canada, France and the United Kingdom support the deal. China and Australia have hinted that they may be open to nuclear business ties with India, while Russia has already spelled out its nuclear-power engagement with India.

New Delhi is actively wooing South Africa and Brazil with promises of support in securing business deals and providing expert software and information technology. So far Japan is not on board, but given the massive business opportunities, especially in software, to upgrade Japanese companies that India can provide, and extensive diplomatic efforts, Japan is likely to come around. Tokyo is pretty much clued into a U.S.-India-Japan "axis of democracy" to counter China.

China reacted swiftly, saying it hoped that India, "as a country with an important influence in this region, can work to maintain and promote peace and stability. We hope they can make a positive contribution in this regard and play a positive role," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said in Beijing.

For the Chinese military, this will be one more piece of evidence supporting moves for China to expand its sophisticated missile and space program.

China conducted an anti-satellite test in January, using a missile to knock out a satellite 535 miles above the Earth, and continues to build up the numbers of missiles it has aimed at Taiwan. According to Taipei they number about 800.

As the United States pushes on with its missile-defense program, with partners including Japan and Australia, the logical response will be for China to build more ballistic missiles so it could overwhelm any anti-missile system.

Because arms races inevitably lead to new arrangements, establishing a kind of Asian NATO linking the big democracies -- the United States, Japan, Australia and India -- was floated by Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and endorsed by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney. But during his recent visit to Beijing, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer ruled out a four-way security pact.

India's missile program, together with its nuclear program and drive for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, is part of its ongoing efforts to establish itself as a world power.

The United States is aware of most of these developments but has been more an observer than a participant as a possible Asian arms race heats up. It is doubtful that the United States has thought through the implications of proliferation of nuclear weapons and delivery systems -- even as Japan and Taiwan, which could develop nuclear weapons fairly quickly should they decide to do so, consider whether a nuclear weapon in North Korean hands might demand countermeasures -- in Asia.

The major reason for relative neglect by the United States, of course, is the war in Iraq, which not only places continuing demands on an increasingly overstretched military but requires the attention of policymakers and planners who might otherwise be able to devote more attention to emerging threats in other parts of the world.