Could Ron Paul Win in New Hampshire?

FreeMarketNews.com
Thursday June 7, 2007

Could Presidential candidate and Congressman Ron Paul (R-Tex) win the Republican national primary in New Hampshire? If he did so, the momentum would be significant – and the press coverage massive - as New Hampshire may be the first state to hold a formal election, even beating out the Iowa caucus.

“Ron Paul could win in New Hampshire,” says a source close to the campaign. “It would be an explosive political act – one that would devastate the common wisdom. The mainstream media hasn’t realized it yet, but folks in New Hampshire take him seriously.”

Ron Paul could use a win in New Hampshire to provide momentum in other states – especially if New Hampshire positions itself as the nation’s first primary again. The state actually has considerable flexibility in terms of setting a primary. The system allows state officials to wait right up to the last minute before they commit to a date. It’s possible that the primary could be held in the second week of January, or even earlier, in December 07. This may explain why the Ron Paul campaign is not putting a lot of emphasis on Iowa but has just hired a campaign manager in New Hampshire with considerable professional experience.

While the Ron Paul campaign isn’t commenting on any moves, New Hampsher-ites likely sat up and took notice recently when James "The Primary Source" Pindell reported that "Former New Hampshire state Representative Barbara Hagan of Manchester endorsed Texas Congressman Ron Paul's presidential campaign and will organize outreach to the state's pro-life community."

http://www.boston.com/news...

Hagan is a powerful figure in New Hampshire politics, and her backing means that Ron Paul has made substantial inroads into the conservative wing of the GOP in New Hampshire. However, even the conservative wing of the GOP in New Hampshire is more liberal than most in the classical sense. In fact, both GOP-ers and the state’s huge independent group of votes tend, opinion-wise toward small government, low taxes and free-market solutions.

That’s why Ron Paul’s message has appeal – and why he could gain momentum. In fact, the maverick conservative-populist Patrick Buchanan won the state’s Republican nomination in 1996, defeating Senator Bob Dole by about 3,000 votes. Wikipedia describes it this way:

At a rally in Nashua, he said, "We shocked them in Alaska. Stunned them in Louisiana. Stunned them in Iowa. They are in a terminal panic. They hear the shouts of the peasants from over the hill. All the knights and barons will be riding into the castle pulling up the drawbridge in a minute. All the peasants are coming with pitchforks. We're going to take this over the top." While campaigning, Buchanan energized his supporters with the slogan "The peasants are coming with pitchforks", occasionally appearing with a prop pitchfork, thus earning him the nickname "Pitchfork Pat."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Buchanan

Ultimately, as the above excerpt shows, Buchanan chose to run in the American “populist” tradition. Ron Paul, a true political throwback, is doing no such thing. He is, instead, grounded in the timeless tenets of Thomas Jefferson’s agrarian republicanism. He is a constitutional scholar, an admirable polemicist and principled politician. His fundamental beliefs are actually those upon which the country was founded - and from which he believes it has grievously and dangerously strayed.

People who actually get to hear his message about small government, lower taxes and free markets often appreciate the fundamental moral conviction of his message. It is quickly clear that Dr. Paul is no normal politician. He is known, for instance, as “Dr. No” in Congress because he will not vote for any measure that he believes is unconstitutional.

As heir to Thomas Jefferson’s thought, Ron Paul is far more dangerous to the political elite than Buchanan ever was. Buchanan could not take his message from the fringe to the mainstream. He marginalized himself consciously or unconsciously.

Ron Paul is no marginal figure. Should he get beyond New Hampshire – and likely long before that - his message may command considerable resonance in the public arena. It already does on the Internet, and for good reason.